Technicals / Charts
Bottom Looks to Be In
April 13th, 2026
Lake Cornelia Research Management, Inc.
Note: Please read the disclaimer and risk disclosures at the end of the memo before preceding.
Monday opens with more of the same. The rally and risk-on continues. JPM is calling for a V-shaped recovery and it’s hard to argue with the technicals.
XLE (S&P 500 Energy) has broken down dramatically after oil failed to keep rallying:
IWF (Russell 1000 Growth) has bottomed and is back in an uptrend. Note that it’s threatening to retake the 200 DMA (448 vs. 456)
Over 50% of stocks are now above the 50 DMA (low was 22% on 3/20):
52% of stocks are above the 200 DMA and climbing:
The “Political Catastrophe” of far left DSA types taking control seems maxed out in the short run (note: I do NOT care who you vote for or what your politics are. This is not supposed to be a Left / Right comment but a market analysis):
Even the IGV might have bottomed after Friday’s washout:
Goldman Sachs Prime Broker Positioning is extremely bearish – people will need to put risk on:
HY already rallying:
Conclusion
Being a macro maven is helpful at the start of major shifts (Private Credit, Iran War, SaaS). Overtime, the market becomes a more and more reliable predictor. We think the end game is here on the Iran war and the oil shock is priced in (so long as it doesn’t get worse). We shall see if this is a bounce or a structural change in the market. For now, the pain trade feels higher.
About Lake Cornelia Research Management, Inc
LCRM, a boutique investment firm, was founded by Judd Arnold in early 2020. Based in Miami, LCRM provides idea generation and investment research services to investment funds, family offices and other institutions. Judd began his career at Lehman Brothers, as a junior investment banker. He spent over eight years in distressed debt and credit, working at King Street Capital Management and Anchorage Capital Group. Subsequently, he was a senior investment professional at Citadel, LLC where he helped relaunch the Event Driven Equities Group. In 2016, along with former colleges from Citadel, he helped launched an Event Driven Hedge Fund at Neuberger Berman, where he was a Managing Director. Judd is currently a member of the Board of Directors of United Road, and was previously on the Board of Directors of DHT Holdings (ticker DHT).
For further information please email: judd@investarnold.com
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