Ceasefire Blues
In the Middle East, Nothing is Certain
April 9th, 2026
Lake Cornelia Research Management, Inc.
Note: Please read the disclaimer and risk disclosures at the end of the memo before preceding.
In the 1990 film WW2 War Movie “Memphis Belle,” the characters Rascal and Jack (the waist gunners on the B-17) use the military slang “SNAFU,” famously explaining it as “Situation Normal, All Fked Up**”.
The ceasefire approaches a third day and chaos reins on the battlefield. For students of Mideast wars, this is nothing new. The 1973 October War had two failed ceasefires. When the conflict “ended” in late October 1973, the Israelis were (1) on the African side of Suez, 100 kilometers from Cairo and (2) as well as 30 kilometers outside Damascus. It wouldn’t be until June 1974 that they left Syria and 1975 before they pulled back from the canal zone in Egypt. In the interim, there were regular skirmishes. We use 1973 as the best proxy because the ceasefire was imposed with the armies in active operations and intertwined. You can watch the excellent documentary about the end game here:
